Politics is about power. It’s about mojo and juice and momentum and timing. As long as a politician has power, and some sort of sizable base behind him, he can get away with an awful lot in Washington. There are always sharks in the water, but they usually just circle, waiting for the scent of enough blood. You don’t want to strike too soon. Even sharks have to be careful, wounded creatures can be more dangerous than healthy ones.
And Trump is a wounded creature. Although he has weathered all the troubles that seem to pop up weekly, they are taking their toll. Hundreds of little nicks and cuts have attracted a lot of predators. Yesterday was a huge hit. The sea is turning red around him. He has been implicated in illegal activity in a court of law, and he presents himself as a president of law and order, so this is bad for him on many levels. This isn’t a situation where he can simply deny there’s anything there, or pretend nothing happened. He is still pointing out that it has nothing to do with Russia, but no one who knows anything seems to think arguing those semantics make any difference at this point.
Make no mistake, establishment Republicans do not like Trump one bit. He is the culmination of their dalliances with the Tea Party, whom they needed to maintain control of the federal government. They hate having to deal with their white trash and evangelical constituents, but they are a necessary evil if they want to get elected. The problem with depending on an easily manipulated base is that anyone can manipulate them, and Trump is better at manipulating a mob of idiots than than the average old school GOP candidate. It takes a brashness and lack of self-consciousness that not even most sociopaths are capable of.
So Republicans tolerate Trump, as long as he provides cover for them to raid the coffers and do the bidding of their rich and powerful masters: the billionaires and businessmen who want to turn this country into a plutocracy. They are happy to leech off of his power, and use him when it is convenient, but politicians are like rats. They will flee a sinking ship as soon as it starts taking on too much water. They always make sure to get enough distance so they don’t get dragged down with it.
Every time there is some new scandal or turmoil, they sit on the sidelines and watch to see if this is the one that will sink him. When they realize that his base is still with him and keeping him afloat, they meekly side with him as much as they can without getting his taint on them. It’s going to he hard to do that this time. Even this won’t matter much to his core base, but there are other things in play besides public opinion. The unavoidable truth is becoming clear that Trump is a serious and inept criminal, and his campaign and presidency is riddled with wrongdoing. Unforgivingly, it’s wrongdoing that can be proven.
Today is the first day of a whole new era of the Trump presidency. He is directly implicated, and this is just the first in what will be a long litany of convictions and revelations and accusations by turncoats and co-conspirators, anxious to save their own hides. The politicians in his own party will start to turn on him, now that he is starting to show serious cracks. Because the midterm elections are coming up very soon, they need to make some important decisions. Do they want to be aligned with someone who looks more and more like a criminal and a traitor every day? They can’t win without his supporters, but they can’t win without the rest of their voters who are over this horrible Trump experiment. He may have finally tipped his scales from an asset to a liability. The problem the GOP faces is that there is no other ship to swim to as this one goes down. They have split the party in their desperation to stay in office, and while they will still try all their dirty tricks like voter suppression and redistricting, floods of Super PAC money and attack ads, they may have damaged themselves too much to avoid the much talked about “blue wave”.
Most likely, the GOP will grab everything they can between now and November, trying more ad more outrageous stunts like changing state constitutions. Most of them with any sense will be dropping out of their races and taking consultant jobs, or at least planning for defeat and a life after politics. They will tear themselves apart from the inside, in an orgy of cannibalism, disarray and mayhem that most people saw coming and will label karma.
The sad thing is that the sharks in the water will be Republicans. The Democrats will do exactly what Democrats do, which is stand weakly by, immobilized by fear and indecision. Already they are privately talking about avoiding subjects like impeachment because they are afraid of riling up Trump’s base in November. Democrats do not play offense. They don’t even play effective defense most of the time. They just wait for the opposition to screw up, and hope everyone else sees it without them having to point it out and appear impolite. They saw what happened to Hillary every time she appeared strong or decisive or too aloof to play the subordinate. She got demonized and attacked, and voters in her own party came to see her exactly as the Republican narrative portrayed her. Democratic politicians are afraid of their sensitive, unreasonable and easily outraged constituents as well.
So they get very little done, and they are afraid to commit to any position. They have the majority on their side, and a clear advantage with young voters, but like most people over 50, they have no clue how to relate to and energize their young base. So they stall and freeze in inaction, and waste the power and momentum they have in their camp. Obama was one of the few who knew how to energize the party, and even he was falling afoul of some of them in the end.
Regardless of all the Republican scheming and Democrat incompetence, Trump is most likely entering his death spiral. He has been primed to plummet since his ill advised Putin meeting, and it’s only going to get worse. You can see that he is finally figuring that out too. In poker, you look for tells to see how strong your opponent is. Some players are really good at hiding them, and some give everything away with a finger twitch or eye movement. Trump is all tells. When he is confident and believes he can bluff his way through yet another catastrophe, he takes to Twitter and unleashes a barrage of insults and wild claims. He was conspicuously silent in the wee hours of this morning, offering a few quiet, restrained tweets. I’m sure that is also the product of his lawyers and handlers trying to keep him in check, but they haven’t really stopped him in the past. No, he’s worried now. It is finally starting to sink in how serious this is and what wrath defrauding and lying to the government brings.
It’s only going to get worse from here. His options shrank even more overnight. There is no way he can fire Mueller now. He will incur the wrath of the nation, and the people in his own party. Of course, he is just stupid and crazy enough to try, but that will be his death knell. He might want to pardon Manafort, but it will not look good at all. Presidential pardons used on people who worked on your campaign, a campaign under intense scrutiny right now, won’t go over well. Trump has had controversies and troubles all his life, but those occurred in the business world, where treachery and immorality is expected. There is very little justice in the financial sector when you screw over a bunch of contractors or deals with the city or when you bilk the working class. It’s only when you hurt your own kind,the other billionaires in the club that you get punished.
Now Trump is in the arena of constitutional law and the intelligence community tasked with rooting out corruption. He is not part of that club. He is fresh meat, and a lot of people will be making their names on taking him down. These are people who have dedicated their lives to upholding the principles this country is based on and supposedly stand for. They are more powerful than most people realize, and more focused, and possessing more integrity than most of us can even relate to. The wheels of justice turn slowly, but now Trump is firmly caught up in them, and they are starting to grind.
I see a lot of parallels to the sixties: civil rights turmoil, a country deeply divided along political lines, a Republican administration in the White House that ultimately culminated in the president resigning in disgrace. We might be arriving at that very same place. We are entering a brave new world, but like always, one that seems oddly familiar to those who pay attention ....
Wednesday, August 22, 2018
Thursday, August 16, 2018
Let Us Prey
I still hear people sticking up for the Catholic Church, and saying things like "you can't blame the whole church for a few bad priests". Here's the thing about that. Serial pedophiles are like serial killers. They are sick, and have severe mental problems going on. It's in no way excusing their actions, but there is obviously something really wrong with the wiring in their brains. They are delusional and missing a lot of the things we take for granted. Empathy, an understanding of actions having consequences, a real grasp on good and evil and any kind of control of their impulses. Like I said, not an excuse, but they are not working with the same tools we are. They are monsters, but monsters with actual documented conditions and issues.
The real monsters are the higher ups in the church who cover this behavior up. They deny victims trauma, they move priests around to enable them to continue to abuse children, and these leaders are not suffering from mental illness. They are not confused or deranged or at the mercy of any chemical imbalance or psychosis. They are simply destroying lives and protecting pedophiles because of an organization and the money they haul in. They are putting church and power and money before people, pretty much the exact opposite of anything the bible tells them to do.
That makes it so much worse than what pedophile priests are doing. These supposed men of God, pillars of the community, righteous and pious leaders, are running a pedophile ring. It's a conscious decision on their part, unclouded by sickness or insanity. They are failing the children, they are failing their own priests who should be getting help or institutionalized, they are failing the community, and they are failing the God that they took a sacred oath to serve.
So I don't really think that the Catholic Church is horrible because some sick individuals have infiltrated their ranks. Pedophiles turn up in all kinds of places. I think that the Catholic Church is horrible because its leaders, people who are supposed to know better, and are entrusted to be morally superior, are apparently okay with letting our children be molested. By their actions they are condoning it. They are saying that the church is more important than it's flock, that children are expendable, that it is better that your children be sexually assaulted rather than any problems arise for the religion.
The monsters are the people providing a safe place for the pedophiles. The monsters are the ones with no problem throwing the children to the wolves, not the wolves themselves. There will always be wolves, the whole purpose of church leaders is to protect the flock from them, not sacrifice them.
The real monsters are the higher ups in the church who cover this behavior up. They deny victims trauma, they move priests around to enable them to continue to abuse children, and these leaders are not suffering from mental illness. They are not confused or deranged or at the mercy of any chemical imbalance or psychosis. They are simply destroying lives and protecting pedophiles because of an organization and the money they haul in. They are putting church and power and money before people, pretty much the exact opposite of anything the bible tells them to do.
That makes it so much worse than what pedophile priests are doing. These supposed men of God, pillars of the community, righteous and pious leaders, are running a pedophile ring. It's a conscious decision on their part, unclouded by sickness or insanity. They are failing the children, they are failing their own priests who should be getting help or institutionalized, they are failing the community, and they are failing the God that they took a sacred oath to serve.
So I don't really think that the Catholic Church is horrible because some sick individuals have infiltrated their ranks. Pedophiles turn up in all kinds of places. I think that the Catholic Church is horrible because its leaders, people who are supposed to know better, and are entrusted to be morally superior, are apparently okay with letting our children be molested. By their actions they are condoning it. They are saying that the church is more important than it's flock, that children are expendable, that it is better that your children be sexually assaulted rather than any problems arise for the religion.
The monsters are the people providing a safe place for the pedophiles. The monsters are the ones with no problem throwing the children to the wolves, not the wolves themselves. There will always be wolves, the whole purpose of church leaders is to protect the flock from them, not sacrifice them.
Wednesday, August 8, 2018
Games Of Chance
I often talk about how I'm pretty much of a nihilist, and not just in the funny meme way. I truly see the absurdity in everything, and I realize how very little of the things we get invested in actually matter. I observe, I get mad, or a twinge of annoyance at times, then I chuckle to myself and go on my way. I sleep well at night, and I make jokes all day.
There is no better example of the absurdity and futility than politics. It's not for the faint of heart. It's infuriating, it's awash in lies and deceit, it's corrupt and rigged, and it will almost always break your heart.
That's why political junkies are so into it. There's so much risk and little reward in getting invested in it, and the excitement in gambling is always the risk. Real gamblers don’t really care that much about the prize, they just lose all again as soon as they can. Like gambling, there are a lot more casual political junkies than real, full blown addicts. That's why the media has been able to sell it to us as entertainment. That's why people who have very little understanding of the process are now involved in it, because it seems exciting and fun and gives them a sense of purpose or participation.
That's where casinos make the bulk of their money. On casual gamblers, people who have no idea about odds, or about winning percentages. People who think they are winning when they only lose the couple of hundred they expected to lose when they walked in, and even justify it when they lose twice that much and consider themselves lucky. How do you explain to someone that's happy to lose that they are aligning themselves with tyrants and thieves who don't have their best interests at heart?
You can't. They aren't in it to win, they are in it because it's been sold to them as something exciting and sexy. It appeals to their baser instincts, and logic and reason have no place there. You have to keep up that appearance too, so you create turmoil and controversy to make it seem new every week. The same way the casino keeps coming out with new slot machines, or the lottery keeps changing the scratch off themes, when it's essentially the same game every time. It's the same exact thing in a different wrapper, and if that doesn't sum up politics, I don't know what does.
It's unfortunate that so many people have to suffer and die while all these games play out right in front of us. We all scream how poverty and corruption and people dying with no healthcare and children in cages is unacceptable. The fact is, all that and so much more obviously is acceptable. It still goes on, every minute of every day. We accepted it a very long time ago, and politics make us feel like we are doing something about it.
The people on the right feel vindicated now, and the pendulum is swinging again, and soon enough this administration will be charged and get what's coming to them. It's not going to be jail and firing squads, though, not for the real power players. It will be impeachment and censure at best, just one more way politics will break your heart. There are no real consequences for the truly rich and powerful, not like for you and me. Sure there will be a few token sacrifices, but that’s soldiers are for.
In four years the country will be back to a liberal majority running the government, but what is really going to change? Real social change happens regardless of politics. Politicians go the way the wind blows, not the other way around. No politician has ever passed a bill about civil rights or abortion or any other delicate social issue because they wanted to. They see those issues as a tool, and they act according to what best serves them, but we think that they are serving us.
The whole point is that most of what the people who casually follow politics sees is pointless. They see outrage and hyperbole, and what infuriated or made them happy this week is forgotten with the next news cycle. That's all by design, and it's pretty much automatic these days. I don't think half of the people in office even realize what they're doing, they are just conditioned to play a game they don't even fully comprehend.
That's why it's so absurd, and that's why most of it doesn't matter, and that's why the few things that really matter never change. Most of us are in the casino, mesmerized by the flashing lights and steady din, not in the backroom where the real money and power are. As long as we're content to be thrilled by chance, and willingly lose and call it winning, nothing is really going to get better.
There is no better example of the absurdity and futility than politics. It's not for the faint of heart. It's infuriating, it's awash in lies and deceit, it's corrupt and rigged, and it will almost always break your heart.
That's why political junkies are so into it. There's so much risk and little reward in getting invested in it, and the excitement in gambling is always the risk. Real gamblers don’t really care that much about the prize, they just lose all again as soon as they can. Like gambling, there are a lot more casual political junkies than real, full blown addicts. That's why the media has been able to sell it to us as entertainment. That's why people who have very little understanding of the process are now involved in it, because it seems exciting and fun and gives them a sense of purpose or participation.
That's where casinos make the bulk of their money. On casual gamblers, people who have no idea about odds, or about winning percentages. People who think they are winning when they only lose the couple of hundred they expected to lose when they walked in, and even justify it when they lose twice that much and consider themselves lucky. How do you explain to someone that's happy to lose that they are aligning themselves with tyrants and thieves who don't have their best interests at heart?
You can't. They aren't in it to win, they are in it because it's been sold to them as something exciting and sexy. It appeals to their baser instincts, and logic and reason have no place there. You have to keep up that appearance too, so you create turmoil and controversy to make it seem new every week. The same way the casino keeps coming out with new slot machines, or the lottery keeps changing the scratch off themes, when it's essentially the same game every time. It's the same exact thing in a different wrapper, and if that doesn't sum up politics, I don't know what does.
It's unfortunate that so many people have to suffer and die while all these games play out right in front of us. We all scream how poverty and corruption and people dying with no healthcare and children in cages is unacceptable. The fact is, all that and so much more obviously is acceptable. It still goes on, every minute of every day. We accepted it a very long time ago, and politics make us feel like we are doing something about it.
The people on the right feel vindicated now, and the pendulum is swinging again, and soon enough this administration will be charged and get what's coming to them. It's not going to be jail and firing squads, though, not for the real power players. It will be impeachment and censure at best, just one more way politics will break your heart. There are no real consequences for the truly rich and powerful, not like for you and me. Sure there will be a few token sacrifices, but that’s soldiers are for.
In four years the country will be back to a liberal majority running the government, but what is really going to change? Real social change happens regardless of politics. Politicians go the way the wind blows, not the other way around. No politician has ever passed a bill about civil rights or abortion or any other delicate social issue because they wanted to. They see those issues as a tool, and they act according to what best serves them, but we think that they are serving us.
The whole point is that most of what the people who casually follow politics sees is pointless. They see outrage and hyperbole, and what infuriated or made them happy this week is forgotten with the next news cycle. That's all by design, and it's pretty much automatic these days. I don't think half of the people in office even realize what they're doing, they are just conditioned to play a game they don't even fully comprehend.
That's why it's so absurd, and that's why most of it doesn't matter, and that's why the few things that really matter never change. Most of us are in the casino, mesmerized by the flashing lights and steady din, not in the backroom where the real money and power are. As long as we're content to be thrilled by chance, and willingly lose and call it winning, nothing is really going to get better.
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